AMM Prediction Market.
POP is an AMM-based prediction market built for Robinhood Chain, using USDG as the native market asset.
Instead of relying on order books and dedicated market makers, POP allows users to trade directly against shared onchain liquidity through an AMM. This makes markets easier to bootstrap, especially for new or long-tail events where order-book liquidity is often fragmented or unavailable.
For Open House, we also integrated OddsShift — a conditional fee-rebate mechanism designed for AMM-based prediction markets during information shocks.
When a sharp price move occurs, OddsShift applies a provisional fee and classifies the trade ex post based on subsequent market flow:
Persistent move → shock flow: the additional fee is retained to protect LPs.
Reverting move → fair flow: the fee is rebated back to the trader.
The classification is based on market behavior rather than an external oracle, allowing the AMM to adapt its economics during volatile events while preserving permissionless execution.
Live demo: populab.xyz/robinhood
GitHub: github.com/0731jiangyujilv/pop
POP + OddsShift explores a simple idea: prediction markets should be able to bootstrap liquidity like an AMM, while adapting when information shocks change the quality of order flow.
During the buildathon, we moved POP from its earlier AMM prototype toward a Robinhood Chain–native implementation. We: 1. Migrated the market flow to Robinhood Chain; 2. Added USDG-based trading and liquidity; 3. Rebuilt the frontend and demo around the new deployment; 4. Integrated the core OddsShift conditional fee-rebate logic; 5. Implemented the shock-flow vs. fair-flow classification mechanism; 6. Added fee retention for persistent price moves and trader rebates for reverting flows; 7. Connected the AMM, settlement flow, and frontend into a working end-to-end demo. The current demo shows how a user can trade a prediction market with USDG while the liquidity layer dynamically responds to information shocks. This build is an early implementation of a broader direction for POP: making AMM-based prediction markets more capital-efficient, permissionless, and resilient during volatile events.
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