thebelief.fun is a prediction market for how events unfold, not only how they end.
thebelief.fun is a belief-market prototype built in the Arbitrum ecosystem. Participants create priced Belief Positions; continuous quotes and forced buyouts let others challenge those positions as an event unfolds. Score checkpoints, reserve-backed protection costs, and auditable settlement connect market activity to the eventual outcome. The project includes a v0.1 demo on Arbitrum Sepolia using test USDC and a v0.2 prototype on Robinhood Chain Testnet using test USDG, with Truth-Progress accounting and process/terminal rewards.
v0.1 is deployed on Arbitrum Sepolia with a public interactive demo and a verified 36-transaction testnet history. v0.2’s multi-user core flow has been validated on Robinhood Chain Testnet; its currently published interface is a read-only evidence UI, not the finished end-user product. Account-abstraction and Paymaster support have separate smoke-test evidence—core transactions are not claimed to be gasless by default. The next end-user iteration has passed local R0–R3 work, but the fresh-market R4 gate is paused; we do not claim that repeatable public creation or final acceptance is complete.
self funded
